The significance of the Delhi meeting is that it is taking place not merely under the shadow of triple blasts that rocked Mumbai (13/7) but also after ‘Azad’ Kashmir as Pakistan Occupied Kashmir is called in Pakistan voted to elect a new government. The election has seen truly and irrevocably Pakisnation of the area what with mainstream Pakistan parties taking part in the election and MQM walking out of its alliance PPP piqued at the denial of two ‘AJK’ seats, which the Mohajir party considered as its own.

All the three mainliners, PPP, PML-N and MQM indulged in pre-and post-poll rigging as the Express Tribune reported to the discomfiture of domestic Kashmir camp. A direct fall-out of the enthusiastic participation of these parties in the ‘AJK’ election is, according to the Daily Times, it has ‘questioned the status quo of the disputed territory as an independent state’ and ‘negated its people’s right to self-determination’.

The situation has only added to their despondency as their cause has been left far behind in this game of power. And a leading Lahore daily editorially said Pakistan’s direct involvement in ‘AJK’ affairs and unsightly handling of the matters are ‘doing more damage to Kashmir issue rather than benefiting it’.

Whether by design or by accident, the US of A, which is  a part of the trinity that guides the destiny of Pakistan, has complicated Pakistan’s case  on the eve of Delhi talks by arresting Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai who has been pursuing  the ISI agenda on Kashmir through the Kashmir American Council. Since the Americans are not known to be flippant in whatever they say or do, much thought must have preceded Fai’s arrest from his Fairfax residence. The arrest, no doubt, was the American response to the lows the relations with Pakistan have reached but the Americans could not be oblivious of the impact it would make on Pakistan’s Kashmir case and the fact that Secretary of State was on a visit to Pakistan’s enemy Number One, India.

So, in the limited context of Delhi talks, it will be interesting to watch how Pakistan will handle its core issue at the Foreign Ministers’ meeting. Already enough hints are being dropped in Islamabad that Kashmir might not figure at the Delhi meet. If this comes true, it will be truly the first time when Pakistan ducked Kashmir issue at a bilateral forum in the past six decades. While the brief to minister Khar would be true to the line set by her handlers, who are not on the public firing line, the Zardari combine, who is the civilian face of the regime in Islamabad, will find the going tough.  

The Daily Times has put the issue in perspective when it wrote: ‘There is no denying the fact that our military establishment has been running the affairs of the AJK since 1949. We have only created a fiction that AJK is an independent state; it is not even autonomous. The inclusion of Gilgit-Baltistan, originally a part of the Kashmir state, in Pakistan as its fifth province in 2009 was another blow to the Kashmir cause. Pakistan has now changed the territorial boundaries of Jammu and Kashmir. With this division, facts have been charged on the ground. We have further weakened Kashmir’s case in the UN’.

The daily went on to echo what most other commentators in and outside Pakistan have said in a more nuanced manner. “Now one can conjecture that the status quo of the Kashmir issue will not change in the near future. If this is the way our policy is going, we should also seek normalcy in our relations with India and have trade ties with it to lessen the poverty across the borders by limiting the defence expenditures being consumed by our heavily armed forces”.

In the situation Pakistan finds itself in as much by default as by its games of diplomatic one-upmanship and tactics, normalisation of relations with India is not a priority. Any move in that direction will undo the reasoning for the raison d’être for Pakistan founded by a constitutionalist Muhammad Ali Jinnah.  

So, what the ‘establishment’ will like out of Delhi? The question was answered by a front page head- line in the sedate Karachi daily, Dawn, which read: ‘Breakthrough unlikely in Pak-India talks’. On the eve of the FM talks, the daily’s Baqir Sajjad Syed, reported: ‘The meeting between foreign ministers of India and Pakistan on Wednesday (July 26) is expected to be a mere counter-signing ritual for the modest progress achieved at the preceding series of meetings of the officials, but with little value-addition by political heads of diplomatic services of the two countries’.

Put simply, Pakistan’s message from Delhi to its Kashmir lobby is let the continuity in status quo remain undisturbed and let your wishes and your right to self-determination be pipe-dreams, for the present.

Contentious issues like Siachen and Sir Creek may not find a passing reference. Some CBMs will find mention, however because Pakistan needs some talking points at the end of the day.

A give away to the Pakistan game plan was the despatch in a Pakistan daily which said: ‘Pakistani foreign minister, new in the job, will have little to negotiate because of her limited skills, understanding of intricate foreign policy issues and, more importantly, the narrow space available to her. Therefore, quite understandably neither side looks to be keen on raising expectations ahead of the meeting’. What an advance signal it is?