Burma will hold its first ballot in two decades later this week on November 7. The absence of iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi (65) and the preponderance of several military leaders though without their trade mark uniform, rob the election much of its sheen. But the military junta, particularly General Than Shwe, who is grooming the second generation leaders, do not share the perception. According to them, the election would mark the first tangible step towards democracy tailor-made to suit the local conditions. Put mildly, it means that democracy to be ushered in Myanmar, as Burma is called for some years, will not be Westminster or American variety, much less the French model. It will have no parallels with the Indian model either.

Agreed there is no single uniform democracy format across the globe but each format that has been devised and practiced has created and nurtured platforms for people to speak up and be heard in matters of governance.  In fact, military rulers world over have always turned to the ballot box to get legitimacy and to acquire respectability.   

Frankly, the Myanmar version of democracy is still shrouded in mystery. There is no clear road map for the journey, though the Junta has said it has indeed chalked out a road map to democracy following five decades of military rule.  There is no ambiguity however that the elected Parliament will in no way diminish the power, prestige and reach of the Junta.

Reports from Yangoon speak of no visible signs of electioneering.  Unlike in India and Bangladesh, where electioneering is in the carnival mould, in Myanmar, there are reportedly no election meetings, as assembly of more than 50 people is banned. There are posters however. But here again, the Union Solidarity and Development Party dominates in the city centres.

The main contender for power is Union Solidarity and Development Party –a party of military leaders, who have doffed off their uniform for the election. It is facing challenge from six parties, which are fighting with meager resources.  One of these parties is the Democratic Party led by the daughter of Burma’s first Prime Minister, U Nu, and two other women from political families. This party is present mostly in Yangon belt.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s party NLD is not in the race and many of its leaders besides Suu Kyi herself have been debarred from contesting on the ground that they had been tried and sentenced to jail terms. Yet, some were still able to make their entry but their success is not rated high.

General Than Shwe is not seeking election to Parliament. He is not retiring from public life either. He will be around as an elder statesman for the junta which will constitute the new government drawing upon the talent from Parliament. In a way the new stature of Than Shwe will be the strength of the government. It will be its inherent weakness as well even as he grooms the second generation leaders for the big responsibilities.

There has been much speculation that Suu Kyi could be freed after the elections were over. She is under house arrest for 15 of the past 21 years. The expectation in Myanmar circles is that she would be released on November 13 that is six-days after the votes were cast.  She runs the risk of being arrested again if the regime sees her interactions as a ‘threat’. What a travesty it is. She had won a landslide victory in the 1990 election. Only to land in jail!

The junta has been resisting pressure from the West, particularly the US, for Suu Kyi’s release and the release of political prisoners. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has made out a case that freeing the more than 2,000 political prisoners would at least help create a "perception that this election will be more inclusive" even if they were not allowed to enter the fray.  ‘But without releasing all political prisoners there may certainly be some issue of legitimacy or credibility’, he said in an interview on the sidelines of Asean summit in Hanoi last week.

Whether Ki-moon’s appeal will be heard in Yangoon or not, the promised release of Suu Kyi will have a major impact on the Myanmar society. Her colleagues believe that the release would have an electrifying affect, some thing akin to political re-awakening.

"Aung San Suu Kyi’s release will be like a great rain. When the monsoon comes to Burma it brings the whole countryside to life. When she is released the Burmese people will be reawakened," Win Tin (81), one of the founding members of National League for Democracy (NLD), told British daily, The Independent.  He was freed in 2008 after languishing in the Insein prison for 19-years.

Myanmar election will be on the agenda of President Barak Obama’s talks during his India sojourn.  Delhi has a fairly good working relationship with the Myanmar junta. It is also home to many pro- democracy exiles. Gen Than Shwe visited Delhi (and later Beijing) shortly before going public with his plans to hold elections in his country.  

So there will be some depth to the Obama – Manmohan Singh talks on Myanmar.  This is clear from the cryptic remarks of Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns. “  .. I can’t predict exactly what the conversations are going to be, but I think you’ll continue to see a strong emphasis from the President, from the United States, on human rights issues across Asia and the Pacific”, he said during a briefing on Obama’s tour of four Asian democracies on this trip -India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan.