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Nepal Situation Report (Updated)

Fragile democracy in Nepal is under threat after the Maoists precipitated a crisis. Prime Minister Prachanda resigned on Monday a day after he had his way with the sacking of the army chief. President Ram Baran Yadav overruled the PM’s decision and asked Gen Rukmangad Katawal to stay in office.

Katawal has come under the firing line with his refusal to admit some 19,000 armed Maoist cadres to the army ranks. They are at present UN supervised peace camps. Katawal’s point is that they are highly indoctrinated and hence will not fit into the apolitical character of the Nepalese army. Prachanda went along with the hardliners apparently to prove to his comrades that he remains a true Maoist but he has ignored the fact that they have many more pressing issues to address if the Maoists are to truly become a mainstream party. Prices, electricity and water are among the daily necessities that have made life unbearable for the people of the landlocked country but Prachanda government has   very little to show in these areas.

Politics of governance in a democracy calls for an ability to take along every one and it in reality means resisting the temptation to do any thing unilaterally, particularly if the ruling established is a coalition. Prachanda ignored this basic tenet of democracy and his decision to show the door to Katawal on Sunday led to withdrawal of CPN (UML), the second largest party after the Maoists, from the ruling coalition.

The decision to remove Katawal was in the air for a long while but its timing does come as a surprise. The ruling coalition was never united on the issue. So no eye brows were raised when the Information Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara was telling reporters about sack orders, the Deputy Prime Minister Bamdev Gautam, who represents the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist), announced his party’s decision to quit the coalition in protest.  Like his party, several other parties like the Communist Party of Nepal (United), Sadbhawana Party and Madhesi People’s Rights Forum are  opposed to the action against the 61 -year-old Army Chief, who is due to retire in another three months.

Lt Gen Kul Bahadur Khadka, the number two in the army and a confidant of Prachanda has been named the acting chief of army. Katawal, who became army chief in 2006 after King Gyanendra’s military-backed government fell, is known to enjoy the backing of the officer cadre in his confrontation with the Maoist rulers.

The Maoist hawks are eager to see quick integration of the Maoist ‘Army’ with the regular army. Katawal is opposed to this move and also to the pressure to show the door to ‘reinstated’ eight brigadier-generals retired by the defence ministry. The Supreme Court seconded his stand in a manner of speaking when it directed the Defence Ministry on March 25 to put the decision on hold.  

Another flash point was recruitment the army was carrying out to fill what it called regular and mid-level vacancies. And when Katawal decided to keep the Army off the 5th National Games to register his protest, the Maoists decided to hit back.

The political uncertainty could mean prolonged streets protests. Much would depend on how the Maoist fighters would react in the days ahead. Analysts aver that they are unlikely to return to the jungles from the UN-monitored camps they are housed in at present under the 2006 peace pact.  But the upheaval will cast a shadow on Nepal’s relations with its neighbours.

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