A US congressional report says Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has increased the risk of conflict with India. It puts the N-war heads with Pakistan at 110-130 and adds they could be more
At a time with Islamabad with Beijing’s backing is engaged in two simultaneous exercises – sneak into Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) along with India or deny India the membership of the body, the bipartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS) has come up with a report that cautions the world about Pakistan’s “full spectrum deterrence” nuclear doctrine and increasing fissile production capability. These twin features of Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapon programme have increased the risk of a nuclear conflict with India, the report says.
Authored by Paul K Kerr, analyst in non-proliferation, the 29-page report puts the number of nuclear warheads with Pakistan at around 110 and 130. And adds as if in afterthought, it could have more. “Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, and deploying additional nuclear weapons and new types of delivery vehicles”.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is an independent agency, which keeps the US lawmakers informed with in-depth info on domestic and foreign issues.
It brings into sharp focus doubts about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Instability in Pakistan has called the extent and durability of much touted the security drill and command and control structures of Pakistan into question, it says.
“Some observers fear radical takeover of the Pakistani government or diversion of material or technology by personnel within Pakistan’s nuclear complex. While U.S. and Pakistani officials continue to express confidence in controls over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, continued instability in the country could impact these safeguards,” the CRS points out.
What about Pakistan’s N-Walmart of AK Khan? “The current status of Pakistan’s nuclear export network is unclear, although most official US reports indicate that, at the least, it has been damaged considerably”.
On Pakistan’s clamour for NSG membership, the CRS tells the American lawmakers that going by media reports the Barrack Obama administration is considering supporting Islamabad’s NSG membership in exchange for Pakistani actions to reduce perceived dangers associated with the country’s nuclear weapons programme.
“According to U.S. law, the United States could apparently advocate for Pakistan’s NSG membership without congressional approval. Although Ambassador Olson testified on December 16, 2015, that the Obama Administration is “not negotiating … a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with … Pakistan,” press reports indicate that the United States is considering supporting Islamabad’s NSG membership in exchange for Pakistani actions to reduce perceived dangers associated with the country’s nuclear weapons program.213 Asked during a May 27, 2016, press briefing whether the United States supports Pakistan’s NSG membership, State Department spokesperson Mark Toner stated that “any country can submit its application for membership and we will consider based on a consensus decision,” the CSR report told American lawmakers.
While on nuclear arms race in South Asia, the CSR report says Pakistan appears to be increasing its fissile production capability and improving its delivery vehicles in order to hedge against possible increases in India’s nuclear arsenal and also to deter Indian conventional military action. It adds that Pakistan’s credible minimum deterrence doctrine has always been ambiguous. “The concept appears to have changed over time”