President Zardari could have shown a little difference towards the judiciary; he did not. His prime minister, dapper Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani could have avoided targeting the judiciary; he did not. So much so Zardari-Gilani cry that their detractors in the judiciary, military and political scene are using Memogate to topple the civilian government is neither here nor there. Historically speaking, no civilian government has ever completed its five-year term in Pakistan in the 60+ years of its existence as an Islamic Republic.
The authors of the Memo failed to factor in the reality that Washington doesn’t enjoy any special leverage with Rawalpindi after Operation Geronimo which had smoked out Osama bin Laden from his Abbottabad lair. And that Gen Kayani and his GHQ Shura have scripted a new equation with Pentagon by cashing in on the American concerns and vulnerabilities in what is essentially an election year for President Obama. That is why Gen Kayani and his Sancho Panza are outraged and forced the defence ministry to admit under oath that the army and ISI are not under its control. Also they were able to go before the Supreme Court with injured innocence and supported the Supreme Court’s investigation.
It is too early to say that opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, himself a creation of the ‘establishment’ as the military is known in Pakistan, will stand to benefit from the Supreme Court’s decision. He is one of the politician –petitioners in the case and his PML-N has made the Memogate a big stick to beat the PPP. The fact that the chief justice of Baluchistan high court, Qazi Faez Isa will head the probe commission is significant. Nawaz has just had a meeting with Baloch leader Attaullah Mengal and though he is a Punjabi, and the Balochs have nothing but hatred for Punjab and Punjab dominated Pakistan army, he emerged as the most acceptable Punjab face to them.
Qazi Faez Isa commission is given four weeks to complete the probe. It means that its report can be expected by the first week of February. The Senate elections are slated for March. So once the Senate elections are over, President Zardari will be toppled and it will be done democratically with Gen Kayani remaining true to his public professions of not interested in power politics. There is already a talk of a silent deal between Nawaz and army generals that assemblies would be dissolved after Senate election. The ensuing general election may see an old army creation and a new army creation as contenders for the thrown but both may end up as a part of the new tripod.
