New Delhi, Beijing and Washington will be keenly watching the outcome of the ballot in the Sri Lankan Presidential election. The three capitals have their own interest that they have never hidden either in the past or now. Well, India has its own pre-occupations these days that technically make it focused on home turf. But from the way it is continuing to help Maldives with an uninterrupted supply of onions despite a domestic shortage it is clear that the Modi government is conscious of its regional role and regional obligations.
From what is in public domain, however, India does not appear to have any favourites amongst the claimants keen on moving into what was once the “King’s House” at Janadhipathi Mawatha in Colombo. It does not mean that the Indian interest in the Lankan theatre has diminished. It cannot, certainly after the Easter Sunday bombings with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi imprint exposed the chinks in Colombo’s security armoury.
That one-upmanship games in Colombo had come in the way of acting on the tip off from Delhi about terrorist plans remains a sad commentary with few parallels if any. The coalition that came to power with Maithripala Sirisena and Ranil Wickramasinghe at the helm lacked cohesion from the word go. And their discord had cast a shadow over governance of the island nation.
Sirisena- Ranil enjoyed the goodwill of India. Also of the US. But it proved to be a non-adhesive glue going by the turn of events. Politics, like cricket, is a game of unpredictable uncertainties. What had gone wrong with them is a good enough subject for post-mortem one day. But there is no gain in saying that the Sirisena – Ranil coalition was high on hyped hope that glossed over their inherent fault-lines.
Sri Lanka badly needs reconciliation to move forward. It can happen only if the past is not simply buried but ploughed to draw lessons conscientiously to build a future that enables the minority Tamils and Muslims to breathe easily with their heads held high while the Buddhists put their act together to be the gatekeepers of Lankan conscience. There is no way either of them can ditch the other; all of them have to live under the same sun as they have done for generations.
This brings up into relevance the much talked about accountability for atrocities and human rights violations committed during the long insurgency led by a megalomaniac. There is no denying that both communities – Tamils and Buddhists had paid a very high price with their lives and limbs.
It is time therefore for both communities, particularly the majority, Buddhists, not to gloss over the reality that majoritarian democracy has no place in the 21st century, and that the call of the hour is constitutional democracy based upon majority rule of society’s citizens.
Significantly, the outcome of the Nov 16 ballot will see the Office of President shed the clout that has come its way in the Rajapaksa era. Sirisena- Ranil face off was largely due to the constitutional changes they themselves had ushered to cut President to size in a manner of speaking. Mahinda Rajapaksa has to bear the cross for this flip-side of Lankan politics.
It is surprising, indeed intriguing that Rajapaksa who had come on the scene as People’s Man, had ended his decade long presidency as an authoritarian ruler. Some analysts aver that Rajapaksa had gone on the Robert Mugabe way. I do not agree with that assessment.
I had the privilege of meeting him; I also had a long interview with him during one of his infrequent visits as President to India. I agree he is a politician first and foremost. He tapped Prabhakaran to get the Tamil votes. Yet, he trampled upon the Tiger supremo once the equations changed. Same streak was at play in his geo-political and geo-strategic trappings. His articulation of human rights got him awards by the dozen just as human rights atrocities under his baton pushed Sri Lanka into the lap of Geneva based human rights ayatollahs. My point is simple: you cannot brand Rajapaksa. Love him or despise him but you cannot ignore him as the recent history has proved beyond doubt. The latest Presidential election is a testimony to his longevity.
Whom the Sri Lankan voters will reward in the election is a hazardous guessing game. Undoubtedly Gotabaya Rajapaksa has an X factor elections generally demand. His likes and dislikes, his perceptions and preferences, his regional leanings and his global equations are a matter of public record. His victory will herald the return of his brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister.
Sajith Premadasa, who is in the race from the United National Party (UNP), is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa. His family carries the scars of history in the sense that his father was assassinated by the Tamil Tigers on the May Day of 1993. At present he is Minister for Housing and Cultural Affairs in Ranil cabinet. He is said to be popular unlike his Prime Minister who is known to cherish what critics term as aloofness.
So much so Sajith’s victory at the hustings may not bring happy tidings to Ranil Wickremesinghe. He could benefit if he could corner the anti-Rajapaksa vote, which, is a significant block. They are many claimants for this vote though. The winner, whether he is Gotabaya or Sajith – has the same unenviable task – namely turn the page on Sri Lanka’s violent past, and keep open space for dissent and pluralism. And reckon with the bench marks set by Sri Lanka’s tryst with Sirisena.
Ferry service from Jaffna to India’s Kerala will earn the new Sri Lanka President and his government some early brownie points. It will promote both pilgrim tourism and medical tourism by bridging the gulf to the Sabrimala temple and multi-specialty hospitals in Kerala. Air travel, which is the only means today, is rather costly for the people of Northern Lanka. Simultaneously, the government in Colombo will do well to resume the Rameswaram (Tamil Nadu) – Thalaimannar (Northern Sri Lanka) ferry service, which till the LTTE interregnum, was used not only to transport people but also vehicles. Since a railway line is coming right up to Thalaimannar pier, facilitating people to cross the waters of Palk Strait by a ferry at a lower cost will be an effort worth its while.
–by Malladi Rama Rao
( This commentary first appeared on Asian Tribune)