Yet to say, the White House alone has a great stake in a positive outcome of the visit, will be patently unfair. The Chinese leader too needs the American prop to pop up the sagging fortunes of the Yuan, what with the economy at home facing battering at the hands of speculators and consumers alike. He may be instinctively cautious and risk-averse as some American China watchers believe but with his two five-year term due to end next year (2012) he would like to go down in history with some halo.
Electoral considerations also weigh heavily with President Obama too since he is all set to launch his campaign for his second term. So, what happens during the four-day visit will bear heavily on the how Sino-American bilateral relationship shapes up and impacts the world since both sides are in direct competition – one to hold on its global pre-eminence, and the other for its own respectable place at the global high table.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made this very point when she observed that China and the US summit was taking place at ‘a critical juncture, a time when the choices we make, big and small, will shape the trajectory of this relationship’. Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai echoed her views when, ahead of Hu’s America sojourn, he said ‘We are seeking sound and steady development of (bilateral) ties, and added ‘The growing strength of China and its standing in the world is a reality’.
In other words, behind all the pomp that accompanies a state visit, there will be much talking the talk and walking the walk. It will however be interesting to see who talks more and who gets away walking the talk.
Whether Washington acknowledges are not, the bottom-line that guides American relations with totalitarian and authoritarian regimes are market access and strategic interests. The rules of the game are as old as the good old (ugly?) British East India Company. Beijing knows this as the latest player whose moto is summed up by Mao’s unforgettable quip ‘money has no colour’.
Hu and Obama will try to steer clear of contentious issues that have great media value, like human rights, for instance, and will get engaged on finding a middle path to resolve economic tensions. A possible trade off will be greater access to high-tech American products for greater access to Chinese market to American products. And the icing on the cake will be some fine tuning of investment opportunities within the United States to the Chinese delight to the dismay of EU allies who are also after the Chinese Yuan.
‘Made for each other’ tag-line, made famous by a famous British Cigarette advertisement, fits Sino-American relations despite occasional frayed tempers induced by market and domestic pressures.
