Poreg View: As our headline suggests, the three nation summit President Asif Ali Zardari is hosting in Islamabad has a very limited objective since there is no commonality of interests amongst the three players – Zardari, Karzai (Afghanistan) and Ahmadinejad (Iran). Karzai will be happy if Zardari can make Mullah Omar of Afghan Taliban, who, observers believe lives somewhere near Quetta, sing peace. This Zardari is in no position to do. His brief doesn’t extend to areas on which the Army-ISI have absolute control. Yet he has taken the initiative for the summit at short notice because the army-ISI combine needed to do something on the regional theatre that could make Washington keep off Rawalpindi’s back. Invitation went out to Iranian leadership against this backdrop. Also because the Iranian card, particularly the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project has become anathema to the Americans who are at logger heads with Tehran over the N-issue. Tri-nation forum suited the Iranians as well because it afforded them an opportunity to articulate their concerns vis-à-vis the US before the Muslim world.
Tri-nation forum suited the Iranians as well because it afforded them an opportunity to articulate their concerns vis-à-vis the US before the Muslim world.Put mildly the Islamabad summit of two-days will be high on rhetoric, and low on content and nowhere near solutions to Islamic insurgency in the Af-Pak region. Already the Afghan reconciliation talks are clouded by multiple channels and competing approaches. There is as yet no fundamental shift in the Afghan Taliban’s position that all foreign forces must leave the Afghan soil. This call is a euphemism for withdrawal of foreign troops. What about the foreign ‘elements’ in the Taliban ranks. Does the demand not apply to them? The Taliban is silent even as the American drones are making strategic hits in the Pakistani tribal heartland targeted at the ‘foreign assets’.
Just before Karzai left Kabul for the Pakistani capital, he said that he thought the Taliban was “definitely” interested in a settlement. “People in Afghanistan want peace, including the Taliban,” he told the Wall Street Journal. And he went on to say that Pakistan must use its influence with the Taliban. But Pakistan is unwilling to play ball with Karzai. ‘. They (Afghan government) have been wanting us to facilitate something. .?.?. We want complete clarity as to what that thing is,” Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar told reporters in Islamabad on the eve of the summit. On his part, Karzai is clearly keeping off the Qatar channel. He is not ruling out talks with Taliban though. For him, the venue for these talks should either be Saudi Arabia or Turkey.
Iran has a vested interest in Afghan peace. It was one of the champions of Northern Alliance, which will not like to see the Taliban emerge in Kabul through the backdoor. More over, Tehran has trade and energy interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan; it can only hope that Islamabad will pull up courage to stand up to the American. But this is one of the greatest ifs of unfolding history because the Pakistani establishment is yet in no mood to throw off the American yoke.
So the significance of the Islamabad summit will be no more than the fact that three nations had taken the first tentative step to come closer ignoring the lengthening shadows of the Big brother.
Ends
