Though it is a fact that US has a much bigger home-grown enemy to deal with, namely the out of control national debt, there are reasons for Washington to reconsider its plans for forces draw down from Afghanistan where the Taliban are on a rampaging mission of late. The Daily Telegraph’s disclosure that America and Afghanistan are close to signing a new strategic pact doesn’t come as a surprise, therefore. Under the proposed deal, which is likely to be inked before the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan in December, thousands of United States troops besides American Special Forces soldiers and air power will remain in the country until at least 2024.
Pakistan will not like this prospect but other neighbours of Afghanistan will welcome. The shooting down of Chinook helicopter in mid-August to take revenge against the SEAL commandos who took part in Operation Geronimo in May (a day after the May Day) highlights the continued threat posed by Afghanistan Taliban. It also is a telling commentary on the fact that a decade after the US-led NATO forces entered Afghanistan to dismantle the Taliban- Al Qaeda structure, the danger to global peace remains undiminished.
It is easy for the Obama critics to argue that US President’s Af-Pak strategy is muddled and that his foreign policy is a hostage to his domestic policy concerns. As the first Black chief executive of United States, he has much at stake. Having inherited two wars from his Republican predecessor, he has very little turf space to maneuver. Historically, Afghanistan is not an easy country to manage for the outsiders. And with Pakistan, the chosen key ally, playing hide and seek on the anti- terrorism war front, the American generals can only come up with cautious optimism, like General McChrystal did in his report – ‘While the situation is serious, success is still achievable’. All this makes Obama’s decision making process that much tough.
For the Obama administration, as a recent commentary in the Lahore daily, The Daily Time, said, the primary goal of military engagement in Afghanistan is ensuring homeland security from the foot soldiers of the al Qaeda network located in the Af-Pak region. If the Allied Forces withdraw completely without fulfilling the task, it will bring smile to Pakistan’s military- jihadi strategists, who have long been waiting for such an opening. On their part, the insurgents too will be emboldened even as the old timers amongst their ranks recycle the stories of glory from the year 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed and Kabul was forced to fend for itself. Since history has a tendency to repeat, the Karzai government will relive the plight of Dr Najib government. It will not be able to stand up and be counted in the face of deep rooted and determined Islamist insurgency. And the emergence of an Islamic Emirates in the Af-Pak region followed by a new Caliphate will be a logical corollary.
The fact of the matter is the turn of events in Af-Pak region have set in motion a situation where a new strategic pact between the US and Afghanistan is a fait accompli. It should not come in the way of negotiations for a long lasting peace deal with whoever finally matters in the Taliban athematic. Yes, the Taliban will reject the dialogue offer and will do their best to derail the reconciliation process because their precondition to sit at the high table is withdrawal of all foreign troops from the Afghan soil. But that is to be expected by way of strategy and also as a means to keep the cadres motivated.
Rangin Dadfar Spanta, security advisor to President Hamid Karzai, has said that a longer-term American presence is crucial not only to build Afghan forces, but also to fight terrorism. ‘We know we will be confronted with international terrorists. 2014, is not the end of international terrorist networks and we have a common commitment to fight them. For this purpose also, the US needs facilities’, he told the Daily Telegraph, which broke the news about the new strategic pact on Aug 20.
Spanta has said “remarkable progress” had been made on working on the nitty-gritty of the proposed pact. On their part, the American Officials involved in the backchannel effort have said that the majority of small print had been ‘agreed’.
The Afghan proposal is for American presence in Kabul for about 10 years from 2014, but Karzai aides are not rigid on the time frame. The US will not be granted its own bases though, and the American forces would be guests at Afghan bases in a longer-term partnership to train Afghan police and soldiers. There is as yet no guess estimate of the number of American troops who will be needed for the new Afghan duty. Some time ago, Pentagon said in the post -2014 phase, 25,000 troops will be needed in Afghanistan. In addition will be the usual support infrastructure like aircraft, drones and helicopters.
Two questions arise in this context. Is it any body’s case that despite its eyes in the sky and ears on the ground, the US was unaware of the ground level threats in Af-Pak region? Are the Taliban with no inside track?
Since the answer to the first question cannot be a resounding no, particularly after what has been staged under Operation Geronimo, the announcement of draw down by President Obama and subsequent launch of ‘handing over’ of command to Afghans makes little sense. All this is nothing but a very calibrated smoke screen to hoodwink the insurgent and the media alike.
For the second question also the reply cannot be in the negative since as Pakistan journalist Saleem Shahzad said in his seminal work before he was ‘eliminated’ by the Militant- Military combine, there are Al Qaeda cells in Pakistan’s security apparatus. The spurt in Taliban violence shows that they are aware of the ‘pact’ in the works and they want to scuttle it in whatever way they can. Abdul Hakim Mujahid, deputy leader of the peace council set up by Mr Karzai to seek a settlement, agrees with this proposition.
Welcome to the new games of one-upmanship on the Afghan theatre.
– malladi rama rao
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