Having tasted victory, the Taliban is already looking beyond Swat and Malakand.  Hundreds of Taliban cadres, hailing from Swat and Bajaur, moved to parts of lower Dir and targeting to reach upper Dir.  They have killed the District Police Officer and a former District Nazeem and began training new recruits in parts of Lajbok, Gal and Benshahhi and in the areas bordering Asmar and other parts of Afghanistan.

The Taliban from Swat have also taken a number of areas in Buner; mosques in several villages were converted into recruitment centres to urge the youth to join their ranks.  Buner, with a population of over half a million and area of 1865 Sq Kms, fell easily despite a spirited but unequal resistance by local people, without any help forthcoming from Security Forces.

The geographical expansion of the Taliban offers some clues to their ‘road map’ to expand to the north towards China and Central Asia, to the west to Afghanistan and to other parts of Pakistan. Haripur, to the south-east of Buner, appears to be the next obvious move for the Taliban once they have consolidated in Buner.  To the east of Buner is located Manshira and to the west Madan. The two areas are easy to capture which will then clear the way to control the Karakoram Highway as for north as Chilas, the strategic route to China.  

It is no surprise that the Chinese are seriously worried about plans of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), aided by other militant groups in the NWFP, and have been demanding action from the Zardari Government.  In February this year, Meng Jainzhu, Chinese Minister for Public Security, met President Zardari during his visit to Shanghai to impress upon the Pakistani leader of the Chinese concerns and need for action.  

Beijing despatched a Special Envoy last month (March) to Islamabad to discuss the threats posed by the ETIM.  Realising that the Zardari Government has no control and the Army is not wiling to fight, the Chinese have reached a separate understanding with the Government of the NWFP to prevent the Taliban and the ETIM marching towards China.

The Chinese assessment that Zardari Government and the Army are of no help to prevent the expansion of the Taliban is a dangerous trend.

According to sources, the Chinese government did not ask Army’s help when two of the Chinese Engineers were kidnapped by the Taliban, but used their own contacts in the tribal areas to negotiate their release.  China has been operating mines in these areas and has built up a network of contacts and informers in the area. This speaks volumes of the kind of control the Government and the Army of Pakistan have in this region.  

The Army and other Security Services have meekly surrendered to the Taliban, whom they consider a “strategic asset” for their larger game plans in Afghanistan.  The American CIA has made available to selected journalists transcripts of taped conversations of Army Chief General Kayani, who reportedly stated that the Taliban/Al-Qaida  commander  Jalaluddin Haqqani a ‘strategic asset’.

The Army is treating the Taliban leaders as heads of the Government with all due VIP treatment.  On April 3, when Maulana Fazalullah, the leader of Swat Taliban, led the Friday prayers at his home village Mandirai, he was warmly received by several military officials and the District Administration.  

According to Farhat Taj in the daily ‘The News’ on April 13, those who prayed behind Fazlullah were Brigadier Tahir Mubeen, Syed Javed Hussain, the Commissioner of Malakand region, and Danishwar Khan, the man in charge of operation Rah-e-Haq.  He raised a valid point of seeking an explanation from the army, why its commander in Swat was offering namaz behind the terrorists who killed soldiers and police men.

A recent article in Dir Spiegel, the respected German Daily, has summed up the Pakistan Army’s attitude towards Taliban thus: “The military avoids serious confrontation with the extremists.  Many officers still do not see Taliban as their enemy. Pakistan’s true enemy, in their view, is India… Quite a few officers say that the fight against terrorism in the north-western part of the country is being forced upon them by the Americans and that they are fighting the wrong war…. A Pakistani two-star general candidly explained the mindset of his follow military commanders… noting that although the Army is fighting the Taliban, it also supports the militants….”

Although the Army is leaking out such signals that they are not fighting the Taliban as they do not consider them the enemy, the real fact also appears to be that Army’s fear of losing war with the Taliban.  Since the creation of Pakistan, the Army propagated an “existential” threat from India and the need for an unquestioned supremacy of the Armed Forces.  This “myth” perhaps explains the reason for unquestioned submission of the people whenever they usurp power in military coups.  The Pak Army is afraid of this “myth” being exploded.  

The Army’s operations against the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in the year 2007, at the instance of the Chinese, has for the first time pitted the militant groups against the military.  While the Pakistan Army’s decisive defeats in the 1971 War with India, when they lost their Eastern plank, and the Kargil war could easily be explained by the military through an internal psychological warfare, they would not be able to explain and survive a similar defeat at the hands of the Taliban who are fast expanding.  

Where as  the Army fear of loosing a battle with the Taliban, the civilian leaders shiver even talking about the militants fearing that their arms can be pointed against them.  When President Zardari sought the cover of Parliament to ratify the Nizam-e-Adle regulation, peoples’ representatives cutting across parties, despite reservations against it, remained silent during the debate.  Irfan Husain, in his article in the Dawn on April 11, quoted a senior journalist in Islamabad saying that when reporters seek an interview with Nawaz Sharif, head of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), they must first agree not to ask any direct questions about the Taliban.  He opined that “being a canny politician, Nawaz Sharif does not wish to alienate his core support among reactionary elements.”

The people at large have, meanwhile, become a hostage in their own country as neither the Army and security forces nor the elected civilian leaders are ready to protect them from the marauding Taliban and other militant groups.  Their patience appears to be running out.  In a protest organised in Lahore on April 10, against Taliban’s public flogging of a 17-year old girl in Swat, one of the popular slogan was: “Pakistan kay do shaitan: fauj aur uskay Taliban” (Pakistan’s two demons: The Army and its Taliban).

This may be an ominous sign that the Army is feared of.  During long years of military rule, the top echelons of the Army officers have enriched themselves and have no desire to fight, particularly the internal enemy.

With Pakistan appears to be fast falling into the hands of the Taliban, the time perhaps has come for all the neighbours and the countries beyond to take urgent measures to prevent the Taliban striking close to their borders.  China, India, Iran and Central Asian countries may have to take fast and coordinated measures to address the issue and secure their borders. 

The time is running out.