One year after Asif Zardari ousted Gen. Pervez Musharraf and became President of Pakistan, certain trends have emerged which seem to indicate the basic approach that the current dispensation is likely to follow and the trajectory that the country is likely to take. The phrase ‘business as usual’ aptly describes this approach.
OVER VIEW
Zardari came to power with lot of goodwill. There were high expectations from his government. At the end of one year, the score card is disappointing. There is continuing drift on issues of governance. A working relationship between the ruling and opposition party remains a mirage. Efforts to avoid a destabilizing clash between them have come to naught. Judiciary has become increasingly interventionist on issues of governance as also legal and constitutional issues. This has come to undermine the authority of the executive. Corruption and maladministration have become rampant. Political unrest has hit the streets with government unable to address peoples’ issues.
Pakistan economy continues to be anemic despite the massive infusions of external aid. The deteriorating law and order situation, high energy costs, lack of domestic and foreign investments, continuing spectre of Islamic terrorism, weak export markets because of global recession and because foreign buyers are skittish about doing business with Pakistan, have a deleterious impact on the economy.
Unemployment and economic distress levels are high. Inflation remains a problem. Shortage of food is wide-spread partly because of production constraints, partly because of inability of government to import food and partly because of distribution bottlenecks, profiteering and corruption. Chronic water shortages, high input costs, and low productivity have hit agricultural growth. The situation is unlikely to change in the near term.
The fiscal position remains totally messed up with debt servicing, defence and general administration taking the away Lion’s share of the resources leaving very little for education, health, infrastructure and other sectors that have a direct bearing on living conditions. Low confidence in the economy leads to capital flight as also brain drain. All this impacted the value of Pakistani Rupee which is depreciating. It has pushed up the cost of debt servicing, fuelled inflation, and affected growth rate. The religious right-wing and radical Islamist parties are returning to the frontline with their rhetoric on the issues confronting the common man. The situation is likely to be aggravated in the weeks and months ahead.
ISLAMIST MENACE
Under intense international pressure, Pakistan army has tried to tackle the Islamist insurgency in Swat. Its efforts have seen some success. The situation in normally lawless tribal areas has become manageable.
Our prognosis is that the army is unlikely to succeed in completely cleansing the country of the menace of the Islamists. Both will be locked in a cat-and mouse game. The army will establish control in one area only to find the Islamists take control of another area. The Khakis as the army is known will soon find themselves stretched beyond their limits. The war of attrition will have an impact on the army.
At this stage, it is doubtful whether the Pak army will pursue the Islamists beyond a point. The operations are at best a sort of holding operation – a symptomatic treatment to the virus of religious extremism that is spreading through the country. As of now, there is no worthwhile effort by the Pakistani State – the political parties or the army – to affect a paradigm shift in the ideological underpinnings that have led to the mushrooming growth of Islamist militias. International pressure has resulted in half-hearted measures to shift the ideological and religious orientation of the people towards a more liberal, syncretic and moderate version of Islam. The days ahead are unlikely to see a dent in the growing influence of the Islamists on the Pakistani society.
WITH INDIA
The sudden spurt in the firing a long the Line of Control (LOC) with India and bomb blasts in the Kashmir valley indicate that the Pak army may ramp up militancy inside India in order to keep the Indians occupied at home. Flip-side of the operation will be that rising tensions with India will force the army to stay deployed in large numbers on the eastern border.
Such scenario will not be to the liking of both the US and NATO, who expect the Pak army to deploy its full might against the Taliban and other Islamist groups. While meeting the demand at least half-way, Pakistan will look for measures to counter the perceived threat from India. It is possible that the Pakistani army will increase reliance on nuclear arsenal. A natural corollary will be diversion of larger resources to build up their nuclear arsenal and refine their delivery systems. It will be no surprise if the officially commissioned, managed and serviced Khan Nuclear Wal-Mart becomes activated once again to foot the bill.
WITH AFGHANISTAN
The security situation inside Afghanistan, which is deteriorating, will have a bearing on Pakistan. Islamabad will come under increasing international pressure to ‘do more’ against the Taliban. It will be tempted to oblige the US and its allies with an eye on the aid-inflows.
As of now, the Friends of Pakistan have not loosened their purse strings to the extent President Zardari wants. The US is aware of the reality. That is reason why President Obama of USA is appearing by the side of Pakistan President at the fund drive.
Present expectation is that at best the aid inflow will serve the purpose of keeping the Pakistan economy on a drip – barely alive.
The demands imposed by the Americans and donors will only add to the problem of legitimacy and credibility of the Zardari government in the eyes of the people. Gen Kayani and his colleagues in the army are unlikely to oblige the US-NATO combine beyond a point for fear of losing their own credibility like it happened to the army under Gen Musharraf.
AMERICAN DIALEMMA
The US too faces stark choices – one, stay the course in Afghanistan and do what it takes to clean up the place; two, cut losses and run, outsourcing Afghanistan to Pakistan.
There is also a possibility of the US splitting Afghanistan along ethnic lines to limit the Taliban spread to only the Pashtun belt in Afghanistan, which the Pakistanis can then control through their Taliban proxies.
Any US exit from Afghanistan is likely to give a shot in the arm to the Islamists worldwide. That would be seen as the reaffirmation that Allah is the only superpower and that the Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires -the British in the 19th Century, the Russians in the 20th Century and the Americans in the 21st Century.
An American exit from Afghanistan will lead to an Islamist upsurge that could sweep Pakistan. A Taliban victory in Afghanistan will almost certainly embolden Islamists in Pakistan to go into an overdrive against the army; such a scenario is pregnant with several possibilities including Islamists taking over the reins of the State. In the event, Pakistan will be severely destabilized and a civil war like situation could engulf the country.
OUTLOOK
Broadly speaking, in the short to medium term, Pakistan is unlikely see a paradigm shift in its policy framework on issues like the ideological foundations of the country, internal security, foreign policy, relations with neighbours, economic management, constitutional reforms, and prioritizing social sector.
The outlook, however, is disturbing. On the one hand the security situation is deteriorating. The country is also entering a period of political volatility. On the other hand people are reeling under unprecedented economic hardships.
The net effect of the development will be an intolerable strain on the Pakistani State. And a fresh lease to fissiparous tendencies. An inherent danger of the evolving situation is that ethnic nationalist groups could feel emboldened to challenge the central authority in Islamabad. It may or may not lead to the second requiem for the two-nation theory that gave birth to Pakistan in 1947 but will plunge Pakistan into chaos and anarchy.
As next door neighbour, India will feel the impact, directly.
