History

President Asif Zardari’s rise to power in March 2008 can be largely attributed to the sympathy vote garnered by the PPPP following the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto. The euphoria of having a democratic government in Pakistan, meant that the PML-N was willing to assume its role as a constructive opposition to the PPPP in the interest of the country. However, since his first day in office in March 2008, President Zardari’s popularity has been on the decline. His failure to relinquish his all-encompassing presidential powers assigned to his seat by his predecessor, Pervez Musharraf; the perceived towing of the American line in the ‘war on terror’ and; the failure to revive the economy are just a handful of issues threatening his future. In addition, his lack of political experience has become increasingly apparent as he struggles to hold on to the presidency.

Analysis of Current Scenario

Zardari’s tenure as president is becoming increasingly fragile. From the worsening economy, characterized by low growth and high inflation, to the government’s inability to address the frequent shortages of electricity – the public’s patience with the president is wearing thin. In addition, the growing problem of terrorism, which has now reached Pakistan’s Sindh and Punjab province, and has claimed more than 600 lives since October 2009, is leading to a growing sense of insecurity in the country. Without the all important public mandate, Zardari will find it difficult to remain in office and keep control over political affairs, should there be a movement from within the PPPP or by external forces (army, judiciary, PML-N) to remove him. The decline in the president’s ratings will see him promote ideological issues which have remained at the forefront of Pakistan’s political existence. There are likely to be further attempts to publicize the Kashmir issue, in an effort to garner public support. Zardari’s recent speech in which he reiterated that Kashmir was the jugular vein of Pakistan and that the country was ready to wage a thousand-year war with India over the issue, are likely to feature more prominently in the coming months, as he looks to regain lost ground and win popularity amongst the public.

The decision by the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP), Iftikhar Chaudhary, to revisit the NRO, is perhaps the biggest threat to Zardari’s tenure as President. While it remains to be seen how far the Supreme Court will go to pursue cases of corruption against him, it is clear that PM Gillani and the PPPP will not intervene on this issue, in an effort to preserve democracy and maintain the supremacy of parliament. Zardari is currently afforded immunity by the constitution, although if parliament were to amend this, he would have to stand trial. Once again, there is likely to be reluctance on the part of parliament to stir the issue and be seen as the destabilizing factor in the country. Interestingly, Zardari’s trump card contained in Article 58(2) B, which allows him to dissolve parliament, is unlikely to be implemented or feature prominently vis-à-vis the NRO. Zardari cannot afford, nor will he make the mistake of attempting to utilize this power. Furthermore, as he is not in favour with the military establishment, he is unlikely to make a political decision which cannot be enforced and, which will surely signal the end of his presidency. However, this does not mean that the NRO issue will disappear, with the course of action against the president unraveling over a protracted period, rather than instantaneously. In addition, Iftikhar Chaudhary and the opposition, led by Nawaz Sharif, will continue to maintain pressure on the president to resign through a moralistic battle, as opposed to a violent or mass uprising, such as the ‘Long March’, which could further destabilize the country.

The COAS, General Kayani, will ensure that the army maintains its position on the sidelines of the political arena. While the establishment’s relationship with the president’s office is not strong – primarily due to the Zardari’s peace overture towards India – the role of PM Gillani as a facilitator has ensured that the two branches maintain a commitment to work towards democratic governance in the country. Kayani is unlikely to intervene in the political process, with his support for democratic institutions working in the favour of the president. However, a possible point of contention between the two offices could arise over Zardari’s power to appoint General Kayani’s successor. The position assumes greater significance given that Kayani is due to retire soon and, that Zardari could benefit immensely by having the backing of the armed forces. The battle between Army House and the President’s office is likely to be played out through the tussle to gain control over key military appointments.  

The perceived ineptness of Zardari to govern is losing him credibility within the PPPP. The president’s frequent visits overseas are coming at the cost of failing to address domestic issues, a factor which could negatively impact the party. In addition, Zardari has failed to maintain good relations with Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif – an aspect which Prime Minister Gillani has taken full advantage off. Furthermore, with news reports stating that members of Zardari’s ‘inner circle’, such as Syed Sahrifudden Pirzada, are conspiring to topple the president, his seat in office is looking increasingly vulnerable.

Pakistan’s progress in the war on terror and its commitment to serve US interests in the region has ensured that the President has not fallen out of favour with Washington. However, this does not mean that the US administration will support Zardari should there be an initiative to make him stand trial. The primary concern for Washington is that Pakistan’s internal politics do not destabilize the country and more importantly America’s mission along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s blunt statement that she had “no preferences” in Pakistan was a clear indication that Washington will not intervene in the accountability process. As such, Zardari cannot rely on the US to ‘save’ his position should he be forced to resign.

President Zardari’s Future

The current situation in Pakistan necessitates that there is stability on the domestic front. As mentioned, the NRO remains the biggest challenge to Zardari’s tenure as President. However, while his position is fragile and the path for his ouster has been created, it remains unlikely that any of the opposition forces (the judiciary, army and PML-N) will openly look to challenge his power in the immediate future. While public resentment for the president is high, all concerned parties in Pakistan would be aware that an attempt to publicly strip the president of his powers and make him stand trial, could negatively impact the country. Segments within the PPPP and primarily Sindh province are likely to stand by the president, given their loyalties to his wife Benazir Bhutto. In addition, PM Gillani, the man who has perhaps emerged the strongest over the last few months, is likely to stand by President Zardari, in so far as to ensure him a dignified exit. Gillani’s impeccable credentials as a PPPP member will make him determined to ensure that the party does not suffer as a result of Zardari’s failings. While, the PM’s support of the President should not be viewed as an approval of his actions, it signals that Gillani would favour a natural unfolding of political events in a democratic manner, so as to ensure the credibility of the PPPP and the stability of the country.

Cases pending against Zardari are likely to be revisited. With the Supreme Court having taken the initial steps, it is perhaps only a matter of time before Zardari resigns or is forcibly removed from office. There is a possibility that in the attempt to hold on to his seat, President Zardari could introduce his son Bilawal Bhutto into the political frame. There have been indications to this effect, with Zardari himself proclaiming that his son will challenge Nabeel Gabool’s seat from Lyari. Such a move would be seen as Zardari’s last resort, and as of now it remains a remote possibility.

In the event that President Zardari resigns or is removed from office, there is a possibility that he will be replaced by Chaudhary Aitzaz Ahsan. A barrister by profession and a prominent politician, Ahsan would be seen as a non-controversial and politically able and favourable leader by all concerned parties. His position as the former President of the Supreme Court Bar Association and his role in successfully representing the CJP will ensure him the support of the judiciary. In addition, as a PPPP loyalist and someone who is regarded as commanding the respect of party representatives in Punjab, Ahsan could win the party support in the largest and arguably most important province in the country. Furthermore, Ahsan is a popular leader amongst Washington’s political circles, a fact made apparent by the support he garnered from US Senators following his arrest during the declaration of emergency under former President Musharraf and, by the respect afforded to him by US think-tanks. Ultimately, Ahsan will represent a ceremonial president who is unlikely to challenge the PM or cause controversy. In all likelihood he will function with clipped powers and will not have the same political influence as Zardari. He will be favoured by all sides and will be regarded as someone whom can be moulded to suit the interests of the party.  

President Zardari’s future is insecure. However, this should not be misinterpreted to mean that he will be removed from office immediately. While his days as president are perhaps numbered, there are several factors pulling on either end of the spectrum to ensure that his eventual removal does not jeopardize the country’s stability and the credibility of the PPPP. In conjunction, PM Gillani’s position is likely to be strengthened over the next few months. His good relations with the army, Sharif brothers, Washington, the public and his party, will make him a man to watch out for in the future.