After the call off of the peace deal, the Taliban have threatened more killings in Afghanistan. But that is what they have been doing all along. So, what’s new? The Taliban never agreed to stop their killing spree, targeting both US forces and Afghan civilians. But Pakistan cannot be comfortable with the development that has dashed its hopes of heralding a new honeymoon phase in the ties with the United States.
True to his sobriquets, maverick and unpredictable, US President Donald Trump has shaken Pakistan and its Afghan proxy, Taliban alike, and has given the both new food for thought. He has called off the peace deal just when the accord was all but clinched. It means the American leader has found reasons which far outweighed his initial calculations with an eye on his second term bid. It also means Pakistan’s hopes of heralding a new phase of honeymoon with the US are dashed to the ground.
The deal rollback is bad news to Pakistan for yet another reason. It has been expecting Washington’s support to survive the Black List danger that awaited the bankrupt nation from the global watch dog on terror funding and money laundering. The bail out looks distant now. Another effect of the Trump snub is that Pakistan has to put on hold the celebrations it had started anticipating Taliban’s return to power in Kabul with the departure of US led NATO forces.
On their part, the Taliban leaders, who are being mollycoddled at the Doha talks, are furious. They have threatened more killings in Afghanistan. But that is what they have been doing all along. So, what’s new? The Taliban, in fact, never agreed to stop their killing spree, targeting both US forces and Afghan civilians. But Pakistan cannot be comfortable with the thought that the Taliban will continue with their barbaric mission inside Afghanistan.
The US administration under Trump had warmed up to Pakistan after it promised to bring the medieval Taliban leaders to the negotiating table and talk out an ‘honourable’ deal for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. And compelled by Trump’s desperation to pull out from Afghanistan, the US allowed, Afghan-born Zalmay Khalilzad, to continue to talk to Taliban leadership in Doha and elsewhere as its special representative. Also, the US chose not to embarrass Pakistan by pointing out that the Islamic Republic’s keenness to become the facilitator for talks between the US and the Taliban comes in the wake of years of denial that it had any influence over the Taliban. The whole world knew that the Afghan Taliban was sheltered and aided by Pakistan. It launched its missions of death and mayhem from bases inside Pakistan provided and protected by ISI.
Pakistan has exploited to the fullest the US hurry to get out of Afghanistan and thus end the gruesome sight of body bags being flown home on a regular basis from the Afghan battleground. President Trump as well as his predecessor Barak Obama subscribed to the belief that the US cannot be extricated out of the quagmire called Afghanistan without the ‘help’ of Pakistan, a country once the closest ally in Asia and presently epi centre of terrorism to achieve its geo-strategic goals.
The first step in restoring old ties between the former allies was for the US to forget and forgive Pakistan for its perfidy and duplicity in the fight against terror. It was a major shift in the US policy towards Pakistan, especially for Trump. Yet he had famously tweeted on New Year’s Day in 2016 that in return for $5 billion worth of US aid Pakistan had given nothing but ‘lies and deceit’ to its benefactor. He decided to cut the largesse, much to the discomfort of a Pakistan dependent on US generosity and addicted to ‘fooling’ the US.
Frankly, difficult to crystal gaze is how exactly Trump will shape relations with Pakistan after the Taliban’s renewed and more vigorous animus towards the US. He might give Pakistan another chance to persuade their Taliban protégés to come to the negotiating table after diluting their anti-US rhetoric. In its own interest, Pakistan will be keen than ever before to see some ‘moderation’ in the Taliban leadership that is acceptable to the US.
The ball is truly in Trump court. How will he proceed after he gets over his anger? If he again assigns a more important role to Pakistan than the civilians in Afghanistan, and side-steps India, he would run the risk of plunging Afghanistan back to the dark days of pre-9/11 to the glee of the Taliban and their masters at the Rawalpindi Shura.
During the nine rounds of talks, the Taliban gave no categorical, unequivocal assurance that they will renounce violence, either against ‘foreign’ troops or Afghan civilians. In fact they showed open contempt for democracy and the democratic way of running a country, reiterating their faith in an Islamic order of their making. Equality or empowerment of women is an anathema for the Taliban. The US should have ruled out doing any business with the propagators of such a primitive thinking. But it did not because getting an ‘honourable’ exit from Afghanistan is the top priority for President Trump.
Despite the sudden twist to the US-Taliban talks, a resumption of dialogue with or without a third party intervention cannot be ruled out in the days ahead, probably sooner than later in view of the fast approaching American Presidential polls. But, as of now, it does not look likely that the Afghan Taliban leadership will offer any ‘concession’ to the US, such as agreeing to talk to the Afghan civilian government.
Talks on the future of Afghanistan were expected to be Afghan-led but the initiative was passed on to third parties, including the US, Pakistan, Russia and China. India was consciously kept out of the loop by all the parties. India has rested its hope on the Afghan civilian government’s attitude which is highly suspicious the Taliban intentions and the role Pakistan plays in keeping unrest alive in Afghanistan.
The Abdul Ghani government in Kabul has repeatedly conveyed its displeasure over Pakistan’s dubious role to the Americans right at the very out set and persisted with its protests till the curtains came down on the Doha rounds for the present. The ball is truly in Trump court. How will he proceed after he gets over his anger? If he again assigns a more important role to Pakistan than the civilians in Afghanistan, and side-steps India, he would run the risk of plunging Afghanistan back to the dark days of pre-9/11 to the glee of the Taliban and their masters at the Rawalpindi Shura.
Already many past and present policy makers in Washington have warned him of such a danger. Well, if he pays attention to their opinions, Pakistan’s anticipated moment of joy will be in jeopardy. Also its dreams of gaining strategic depth beyond the Durand Line.
—-By Atul Cowshish