Another round, the 10th in the series, of voting to elect the Nepali Prime Minister ended on October 6 with predicted results. The Nepali Congress (NC) candidate, Ram Chandra Poudel, was the only one in the fray since Maoist leader Prachanda bowed out after a pact with UML. Peculiar it does appear but the reality is that under the Nepali constitution the lone candidate for the top job cannot be declared elected unless he gets the majority support. Poudel secured his party’s109 votes alone with the UML and Madheshi parties amongst others not taking part in the vote. Well, this is a piquant situation, the authors of the interim constitution did not envisage and hence the statute is silent on the remedies. There is no authority that can terminate what has become a proforma exercise and it must continue till the result is achieved or Poudel also withdraws as demanded by the Maoists and UML alike.
The Maoist-UML pact has not been made public. So, the terms that brought these two sides together remain in the realm of conjecture. Both have, however, called upon Poudel to also withdraw and thus facilitate a consensus Government. Nepali Congress sees red in the secret pact of the two Communist parties. So, it has refused to withdraw Poudel’s candidature until the Maoists meet the NC conditions for a compromise.
NC apprehends that Poudel’s withdrawal from the race without prior agreement or understanding amongst political parties on issues related to peace process, drafting the Constitution, and form and leadership of the alternate government, would result in a situation that the nation confronted after the Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned under the tri-partite agreement between the NC, UML and Maoists. The agreement has not thrown up any solution and Madhav Kumar has entered his name in record books as the longest serving care-taker premier (100 –days by the first week of October)
Under the accord, the three-main players agreed to form a consensus government while the Maoists committed to convert their militant youth wing, Young Communist League (YCL) into the party’s student group and to work out modalities for integration of its armed cadres with the armed forces. None of this happened as Maoists are bent upon heading the next government and other political parties would not hand over power under the threat of gun.
NC, therefore, insists on Maoists fulfilling the certain conditions, and also agreeing to the form of the new government before it would ask Poudel to leave the contest. These conditions are dismantling of YCL, and return of all seized properties to their rightful owners. Maoists are not yielding, at least as yet; they see the YCL as a crutch and weapon in the march towards the goal of `single party’ dominance. With their armed cadres confined to cantonments under the control of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), the YCL is the only available organ Maoists can turn to for organising street agitations, terrorise opponents and organise vote rigging in the elections.
Another tenacious issue has been rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants. In September, the Maoists reluctantly agreed with the government to bring these armed cadres under the control of Army Integration Special Committee (AISC). They also agreed to provide updated information on each and every combatant, currently confined to the cantonments, to the Committee. Neither the AISC nor the government has any information on the numbers or their identification. Only the UNMIN has the list but it refuses to share the details with the government or the AISC. While the Maoist and UNMIN put the number at 19,602 and the government is making them payment, it is believed that a large number of them have left the camps and remaining numbers could be anywhere from 12,000 to 14,000 at the best.
Two other proposals have remained non- starter. One a sub-committee will prepare a model plan for integration and rehabilitation package within four days of the tripartite agreement; two the AISC will decide the modalities of complete integration and rehabilitation process within a period of 60 days. In the prevailing atmosphere of mistrust among the top three political parties, it is uncertain whether there would be any forward momentum.
Half of the one-year extension for the Constituent Assembly has already been completed and the parties are not yet in sight of a consensus government; they are not willing to allow the Assembly to function to write the statute. Nepal is in a very precarious financial condition with the Maoist party unwilling to cooperate to pass a full budget. The caretaker government has powers only to spend bare minimum. Development projects have come to a stand still.
Following the euphoric agreement signed in New Delhi on November 22, 2005, the peace process took off on a positive note. Unanimity amongst the political parties saw the removal of the King and Nepal became a Republic. The Hindu foundation of the country was changed to secular one. The elections that followed gave Maoists a major share of parliamentary seats but not simple majority. Once they formed the government in alliance with other parties, Maoist Government began to take advantage of the control of levers of power.
Prachanda and his colleagues started fast moves towards their goal of “proletariat dictatorship”. They were creating “inflated” numbers of Maoist armed cadres to be integrated as a separate group in the Army. The YCL unleashed fear and violence against opponents in different parts of the country. The breaking point was an attempt by the Prachanda Government to remove the then Army Chief Gen. Rukumand Katuwal and replace him with the pliable second-in-command Lt. Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka to get through their integration plan. The Army reacted sharply and President Ram Baran Yadav stopped the Maoists in their tracks by reinstating the sacked Gen. Katuwal.
The rest as the saying goes is history.
As the situation stands today, there is no hope of any break through to the impasse. Maoists are willing and ready to wait patiently till the tide turns in their favour. They are consulting the Chinese on the strategies to be followed to ensure a return to power. Number of visits that were exchanged between the Communist Parties of Nepal and China are an indication of close consultations and coordination on the posture to be adopted. Even as leaders of major parties were engaged in hectic consultations on the eve of the 10th round of polling, Prachanda and his party’s head of Foreign affairs, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, were travelling to China. This was Mahara’s second visit to China in as many months. He had led a Maoist delegation to Beijing two months ago when he had held wide range consultations with the Chinese Communist Party leaders, who seem to have advised him to work with CPN (UML) to regain power.
The UML is a divided house with a faction led by its Chairman Jhalanath Khanal willing to go by the Maoist agenda, as coordinated by the Chinese. The other wing led by K.P. Oli smells a rat in the Khanal-Prachanda alliance and is determined not to allow the party to be taken for granted. It wants to script a different agenda. The care-taker Prime Minister and former Chairman of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal is often driven by contradicting forces, and, therefore is unable to help UML to firm a clear position.
The Nepali Congress, though the second largest after the Maoists, commands a little over 100 seats in the 600-plus member Parliament. The grand old party is faction ridden notwithstanding the determination to prevent the Maoists from bulldozing their way to establishing proletariat dictatorship. . The three Madhesi parties are united under a loose confederation, are uncontrollable but they are also a divided lot. Some of the Madheshi factions are believed to be ready to support a Maoist alliance for appropriate `consideration’.
In such a scenario, it is too much to expect either a consensus or a compromise solution for a forward movement. There is talk of opportunistic alliances; the pro-King Prajatantra Party is said to be making contacts with various parties, particularly the Maoists who had had an understanding with former King Gyanendra when they were underground. There is growing frustration among the people which is manifest in overwhelming response being given to the former King during his visits to some parts of the country.
Nepal is sandwiched between China and India. It is more akin to India in socio-religious traditions; China is ready to invest anything to re-write its traditional linkages and help install a government amenable to its own demands particularly stamping out the anti-China movement growing in the Tibetan refugee camps. Nepali leadership, therefore, have to act in a much more mature way and demonstrate `statesmanship’ to take the help of both the countries in more transparent manner, without playing against each other, for the larger benefit of country’s interests. Any effort to give a larger role to China and use that card against India could ultimately do more harm than any good.
In any democracy, the ultimate solution to impasse on governance is with the people. The Nepalese political parties do not appear to have any option except to seek a fresh mandate
