By Raj Rajnesh
As the United States has intensified its military operations to pound Taliban and force it into a `settlement’ in the march toward its exit strategy starting from mid-2011, Pakistan is equally determined to foil this game and convert it into an `advantage’ for itself.
With the surge in troop strength is almost complete, the US strategy has been to clear the Taliban controlled areas south of Kabul and involve the local leadership to take over responsibility to keep out the militant elements from their regions. Towards this end, Washington wanted the Pakistani Army to plug the border openings so as to deny any escape route into North Waziristan hideouts for the Taliban groups headed by Haqqanis. Simultaneously, the Pentagon wanted the Pakistani Army to launch its own operations into North Waziristan to clear the area of terrorist `safe havens’. American Generals have occasionally hinted that if Pakistan Army did not stamp out these terrorist hideouts, they would do so themselves.
As Bob Woodward pointed out in his latest book, `Obama wars’, the President’s greatest concern was the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. Some advisors had cautioned the Obama Administration that General Kayani is a “liar” and told it not to believe the Pakistani word of cooperation in fighting terrorism, according to the author.
General Kayani proved to be too clever, like his predecessors, who created a situation where by the Americans came to believe in the indispensability of help from Pakistan’s Army, although the latter’s half-hearted measures are known to be party of a strategy to hold `all the aces’ and dictate terms to the lone super power. The Pak Army made the USA to believe that it is the only power that can get the Taliban come to terms with the ruling dispensation in Kabul for a power sharing arrangement to facilitate the `exit policy’ of President Obama. The Pak Army has also convinced them that their military operations into South Waziristan, Fata areas and North Waziristan would bring the hard core Taliban to their knees while encouraging the moderate elements to come to the negotiating table.
The cleverly calibrated military operations in Swat and South Waziristan had `cleared’ the areas of the Taliban but helped them to move to `safe havens’ in North Waziristan. It is more than a year and Pakistan Army is refusing to move into North Waziristan as they have no intentions of acting their own `protégées’ and `strategic assets’ to safeguard Pakistani interests in any future set up.
The US demands and Pakistani outmanoeuvring have often seen ups and downs.The Americans raise the pitch with Drone attacks but start being apologetic in the face of strong Pakistani verbal outbursts and border shutting. The latest such incident happened on October 1 when American helicopter gunships strafed Taliban andAl Qaida hideouts in North and South Waziristan, stating that the raids were to prevent plans being hatched for 26/11 Mumbai-type multiple attacks on European cities. Three soldiers of the Frontier Corps manning a mountain top post near the border were killed in the shooting. The month of September saw unusual increase in the Drone attacks, almost two dozen, one of which reportedly eleminated a leading Al Qaida operative Sheikh Fateh Al-Masri on Sept. 25.
The Pakistani Army reacted by closing the crucial Torkham border crossing, which is the main Pakistani entry point to Afghanistan. At the same time 30 NATO trucks after shutting down the border pass. Another 28 NATO oil tankers were set ablaze in Islamabad on Oct 3. Prime Minister Geelani, while answering questions in the National Assembly, stated that his Government has unspecified “other options” in case the US did not stop aerial intrusions undermining the sovereignty of the country. While drone attacks had the general approval of the Zardari government, although not stated openly, the manned helicopter gunship raids were seen as violation of the country’s sovereignty and are vehemently condemned. Popular reaction forced the Government to temporarily close the Torkham entry point.
The killing the three FC men is mired in a controversy with Pakistan Army strongly protesting the act. However, the Pentagon spokesman Col. Dave Lepan strongly defended the shooting saying that the Pakistani troops had fired, “as a warning”, at US helicopters taking part in the raid. “You fire at a helicopter in a combat, they usually take that as a hostile act and return fire”, said the Pentagon official.
This is not the first time that Pakistani soldiers were killed in an American air raid although the NATO forces are known to be extra careful to prevent any casualties among the Pakistani armed forces. The previous NATO attack against Pak soldiers took place at a border crossing last year as Pakistani soldiers were seen actively helping the Taliban to cross over to the hideouts after carrying out an attack inside Afghanistan. The Pentagon’s contention on the latest incident could mean the FC soldiers were again trying to support the Taliban and they had opened fire to chase away the helicopter-gunships.
As the CIA Chief, Leon Panetta, visited Islamabad last week with a tough message to Pakistani establishment to sincerely act on their promises, a video surfaced showing stoning of a woman in Orakzai by Taliban. It proves that the Taliban have returned to areas that the Pakistani Army has claimed to have clinched from the terrorist groups. While the Pakistani authorities maintain that the video was fabricated and that it was a western effort to show that the militants were returning to Orakzai, there are several eye witness accounts from Pakistani journalists indicating that the Taliban is back with a big bang and is trying to impose its `justice’ system. It is no surprise that some of the drone attacks in the past few weeks targeted these very areas.
The fact that Gen. Kayani and the ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Pasha have been “lying” and are giving false promises to the Americans is widely acknowledged by senior US officials. Bob Woodward also says so in his latest book.
So, what are the options available for the US? Occasional upping the ante and then relenting following strong Pakistani reaction would not lead the American war effort anywhere. The strategy, as it stands now, immensely depends on cooperation from Pakistan Army to plug open border crossings and launch military action to wipe out terrorist infrastructure and hideouts in the lawless tribal areas. The NATO forces are also heavily dependent on Pakistani routes for supply of most of its requirements, which arrive by ship to Karachi port.
Nearly 70% of NATO food and logistic supplies and 40% of its fuel requirements are shipped via Pakistan for some 160,000 US-led troops in Afghanistan. Pakistani routes are the cheapest, shortest and the easiest despite the fact that the supply trucks are the soft targets for the Taliban.
London daily, `Independent’, quoted a Pakistani Army officer saying that the Taliban received a large part of the $ 1500/- protection money paid by trucking companies for every one of the 1000 or so trucks entering Afghanistan each day with US-NATO supplies. Local bandits have also been beneficiaries as they loot the supplies and sell them in local markets and even to the Taliban. Raids in such make-shift warehouses in tribal areas discovered NATO helicopters, and whisky bottles amongst other rations..
There are currently two routes passing through Pakistan into Afghanistan. One of them, which was closed last week, passes through Khyber Pass in the Northwest Pakistan to the border town of Torkham and on to Kabul. The supplies, delivered by ship at Karachi Port, are transported by road through this route to Afghanistan. The second route goes through Baluchistan to the border town of Chaman and then to the South Afghan city of Kandahar.
The US doesn’t have many options and that is one reason why it deals with Pakistan Army on the latter’s . Washington can break the `myth’ of Pakistan’s indispensable support and call its bluff. But this, strategy needs relentless aerial raids into North and South Waziristan and other parts of FATA to simultaneously target the `safe havens’ of the Taliban and al Qaida groups with a serious warning that any interference by the Pakistan Army would attract immeasurable damage.
The US must also seriously explore and seek cooperation from the Russia-led CSTO, regional security force of Central Asian countries, which could facilitate not only alternate routes of supplies as well as military push from the Northern Afghanistan, where many Talibani groups are moving in for safety and hideouts to escape American military action in the South. Such a coordinated effort would bring in real international cooperation to fight the menace of terrorism.
The US cannot afford any more dithering. Nor should it be carried away by false Pakistani promises . America must expand military operations of “hot pursuit” to wipe out terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan so that the region and the world at large can live in peace. Such military operations must go side-by side a concerted `media war’ to win the `hearts and minds’ of Pakistanis. Much of the Pakistani society understands the gravity of the situatiuon as a witness to terrorist menace. A word by President Obama on American objectives in such a war to rid the region of terrorist would go down well among large sections of people Pakistan.
