Whatever be the veracity of the claim, this is the first ever admission of ‘secret missions’ over Iranian air space by the CIA. It is also an admission of a fact that CIA managed drone missions are not limited to Pakistan, and encompass neighbouring Iran, which is at loggerheads with the West over its nuclear quest.
The confirmation of this line of contention has come from the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. While down playing the Tehran report, the ISAF said in a statement that the operators of a drone had lost control of it in a surveillance flight over western Afghanistan last week. In so many words, the statement case was that the drone had strayed into Iranian air space by accident. The statement was silent on the cause for the ‘loss’ and the type of drone in question.
The RQ-170s are known to be in extensive use in Af-Pak region, particularly over the tribal heart land of Pakistan which is known as the safe haven for Islamist militants. These drones had carried out surveillance of Osama Bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan, before and during the Abbottabad raid in May. These aircraft are capable of evading radar detection and other surveillance systems; they are equipped with high-powered cameras and devices that can intercept audio communications.
Dec 4 was not the first Iranian claim of shooting down a spy drone. It claimed a hit in the Persian Gulf in January, and another one in July over the city of Qom, near its Fordu nuclear site. So much so, it is difficult to buy theories of drift and accidental loss of control. As Stratfor, US based think tank, remarks, the American and Nato version of the drone loss is no more than ‘dubious’ since the American concerns over Iran’s nuclear urge has made Iran a valued target for ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) campaign particularly to map out Iranian nuclear sites, ballistic missile units, air defence network and command-and-control nodes.
Now three questions arise. One – how broad based and comprehensive are the American covert mission against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Two has Iran acquired the ability to detect and shoot down stealth drones. Three will the US action lead to unprovoked air strikes and war and if so, at whose behest and with what consequences. These are disturbing questions with wider ramifications for peace and stability in Persian Gulf and beyond even if the American campaign has a limited and immediate objective aimed against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
On Nov 12 (2011), a blast was reported at a military base in central Iran. According to New York Times (NYT), the base, near Bidganeh, about 25 miles from Tehran, is used to test and develop advanced solid-fuel missiles, which are designed as a deterrent against pre-emptive attacks by Israel or the United States. Officially Tehran has termed the blast as an accident; it could be a result of sabotage as well. Sabotage is not new to Iranian system. Iran has frequently accused the United States and Israel of spying and sabotage programs. A highly sophisticated computer worm attacked its main uranium production facility once in the past. A loud blast was ‘caused’ at Iran’s uranium conversion plant located near the city of Isfahan.
A top commander, Brig. Gen. Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam was killed along with 16 other Revolutionary Guards members in the blast. He was central to Iran’s missile development, and his death was major setback for Iran’s long-range missile programme. The explosion caused substantial damage to the base, going by satellite images.
It is too early to say whether there is a connection between the Nov 12 blast and Dec 4 downing of drone. NYT reporters, David E. Sanger and William J. Broad in their Dec 4 despatch, titled ‘Explosion Seen as Big Setback to Iran’s Missile Program’, have drawn a connection between the blast and the downed drone, noting there had been “intense surveillance efforts” of suspected Iranian weapons sites.
Analyst Patrick Clawson from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told Los Angeles Times “It does appear that there is a campaign of assassinations and cyber war, as well as the semi-acknowledged campaign of sabotage.”
Pertinent to point out in this connection is the fact that only on Nov 29 the British embassy in Tehran came under an attack by a mob protesting against the US inspired sanctions against their country. The day also marked the anniversary of the murder of Dr. Majid Shahriari, a leading nuclear scientist. Tehran holds Mossad responsible for the killing. The protestors were no more than two dozen. Their anger was as much against the sanctions as against the double standards of the West in matters nuclear. And using the sanctions regime as a disciplining tool.
London has effectively prohibited British financial institutions from carrying out transactions with Iranian banks and businesses, unless specifically licensed by the treasury. The EU has targeted some 200 Iranian companies, individuals and organisations; the possibility of “additional measures” is not ruled out. But any EU embargo on Iranian oil may not be easy since Spain and Italy, the largest importers of Iranian crude, are not financially in pink of heath.
The Obama administration has designated Iran’s entire financial sector as a “primary money laundering concern” under the “counter-terrorism” provisions of America’s Patriot Act. Through an executive order, Washington armed itself with the power to impose sanctions on companies that provide goods and services to Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical sectors. What is more, with its global clout, the US can take punitive action against foreign as well as American banks and corporations if they are found dealing with Iranian entities.
This was one reason why Indian oil companies had tough time in clearing their bills with the Iranian oil companies. In fact, the Indian story is repeated in all its other ‘oil deals, according to reports in the international business media, which says, the sanctions are beginning to bite the world’s third largest crude exporter. Yet, sections of American political class and media, as also the Israel government likewise find the sanctions “not going far enough.”
Republican Senator Mark Kirk and Democratic Senator Robert Menendez have proposed an amendment to the defence bill that directly targets Iran’s central bank for sanctions even as the Republican Party leaders have made Iran an issue in the presidential primaries.
By the time the 2012 US presidential election scene warms up Iran and Afghanistan may become hotly debated foreign policy issues to the apparent relief of the Democrats, who would love the focus to shift from domestic economy. Iran is not a loner as it is made out to be. Russia may have acquiesced in imposing sanctions on Iran but has bluntly opposed additional UN penalties. So do China and Turkey, who see the latest sanctions as “unacceptable” and “contradictory to international law.”
In the short to near term, we will see further deterioration in the relations between the West and Iran. Tensions will certainly escalate if the US insists on getting back the drone wreckage. Iranian leadership is unlikely to oblige, and, in fact, may use the opportunity to study wrecked drone and even share with friendly neighbours the findings of its exploration.
