China often claims that its military is a `defensive force’ and its objective remains `peaceful growth’, but in recent days, its neighbours are no more convinced; they are, in fact, taking counter measures to prepare themselves against  any economic or military pressures from China.

China’s naval modernization aimed at developing `blue water’ capability is a case in point.

A commentary in China’s Global Times said (May 5) that the PLA Navy was in a state of transition from `brown water navy’ to a `blue water navy’, noting that it must conquer the bottlenecks in the `first chain of Islands’ in South China Sea. 

In line with the policy of re-claiming its sovereignty over the islands, it was reported that two vessels of China Maritime Safety Administration, Haixun 31 an Hiaxun 11, carried out a nine-day (May 2-10) patrol and law enforcement mission in the South China Sea.

This patrol covered Sanya Bay and Woody Island of the Paracel Islands, Fiery Cross Reef of the Spratly Islands and the Mischief Reef.  It was the first time that the China Maritime Safety Administration conducted maritime patrol operations in waters surrounding the Spratly Islands.

In an investigative report in the South China Morning Post (April 18, 2010), Grey Trode, a Hong Kong based author and China watcher, stated that China has already forged ahead to develop blue water navy.  He pieced together PLA’s naval exercises, their strategies and objectives. Air and naval exercises in February this year along South-east of Japan’s strategic off-shore Islands were particularly significant.

The submarine exercises, close to the Islands where the Americans maintain their military base, sends a message that it is unafraid to assert its rights of free passage to move beyond foreign naval bases that could contain it.  The East Sea Fleet flotilla of crack Sovremenny class destroyers, frigates and submarines practiced anti-submarine warfare maneuvers.

The strategy emerged out of these exercises was to bring flexibility in deployment of all the three fleets in an emergency situation, which is a marked shift from the old fashioned way of operating the three fleets separately.  Stealth and night flying, radar-jamming electronic warfare and multiple mid-air refueling of J-10, JH-7 and J-8 and fighter planes from long range tanker planes as well as simulated bombing raids were featured in the coordinated manoeuvres in the South China Sea. 

Although Beijing termed the maneuvers as routine training, they have sent disturbing signals to the US, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and other neighbours. The Japanese Defence Minister remarked that such a situation had not happened before and added that Tokyo would investigate ‘whether China has any intentions against our country’.

Japan has since set up a task force (on April 10 to be precise) to monitor Chinese moves. The decision coincided with the sighting 10 Chinese naval vessels including two submarines close to Okinawa chain of islands.  Researchers at the Japan’s National Institute for Defence Studies will closely monitor Chinese military spending as also changes in Beijing’s strategy in the region.

Australia also reacted sharply with its Defence Minister J. Faulkner calling upon China (early May) to be more open and transparent about its rapid military build up, particularly the expansion of its navy.  Australian Strategic Policy Institute’ (ASP), a think tank, opines that the China’s military expansion is designed to end the US Navy’s domination in the region and make it very difficult for the Americans to come to the aid of Taiwan, Japan or other allies in the event of a serious conflict.

Faulkner’s remarks about China’s navy reflect the growing concerns in US that China’s rapid military expansion would erode US military dominance in the Pacific in the next two decades.  US officials have warned that Chinese naval expansion is happening much more rapidly than what had been expected, with plans for new nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers giving Beijing the power to extend its military might far from its shores.

American think tank, Jamestown Foundation, says that China’s regional “charm offensive” has lost momentum in Southeast Asia. And has aroused serious concerns, instead.  The  countries in the region have consequently articulated their concerns on a range of political, economic and strategic issues, and initiated steps to beef up their armed forces to hedge growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, it said in its May (2010) report, authored by Ian Storey.

China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) ran into problems soon after its launch in January (2010) with Indonesia raising serious objections and calling for re-negotiating the agreement.  Indonesian manufacturers fear unequal competition leading to domestic market being swamped by Chinese goods, closure of local businesses, job losses and trade deficits. These fears are equally shared by Indonesian counterparts in other countries. 

Vietnam, which currently holds rotating Chairmanship of the ASEAN, has brought on the Organisation’s agenda China claims of sovereignty over Parcel and Spratlys group of islands in the South China Sea. These islands are also claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei.  Besides projecting its military power to enforce its jurisdiction, China has established local governing bodies in the Parcel Islands; it has threatened Vietnamese fishing vessels.

Southeast Asian countries are not only strengthening their naval capabilities but also increasing their military exercises with other friendly Asian powers like India. Malaysia, for instance, has acquired two Scorpene-class submarines that will be based in Sabah near to the disputed Spratly Islands. Vietnam has reportedly placed an order with Russia for six ultra-quiet Kilo-class submarines.

Surprisingly, China knows its military actions are evoking serious reactions but it does not feel the need to assuage the concerns of the neighbours.  Some half-hearted measures like projecting reduced defence budget did not convince anyone as China’s military funding is always shrouded in mystery and is spread over several heads, which rules out any realistic assessment. 

China’s naval modernization has gone hand-in-hand with its port development projects in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and some African countries.  It has also sent its ships for anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. All this makes and the plans to acquire port facilities in Africa clearly demonstrate that China is set to strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean. 

As its intentions are not benign, sooner or latter, China will face opposition in Southeast Asia and from littoral states of the Indian Ocean as well.